$SPY Steady Ascent Strategy

This $SPY ( ▲ 0.28% )  strategy has demonstrated remarkable performance over two decades, boasting a return of 340 percent while navigating through some of the most tumultuous market conditions. Join me as we explore how this strategy operates with systematic rules, a high win rate, and how it can be a critical component of a broader investment portfolio.

Introduction to the SPY Steady Ascent Strategy

The SPY Steady Ascent strategy is designed to trade the SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, with defined entry and exit rules. It focuses solely on long positions in order to capture breakouts above historical ranges, all while maintaining stringent loss-cutting discipline. The strategy has shown a ~76 percent win rate and offers investors a systematic approach with zero guesswork.

DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice. Results are hypothetical, do not indicate future results, and do not represent returns any investor actually attained. All materials and all associated media are provided for the general public for educational, informational, and entertainment purposes only. We are not securities brokers/dealers, financial/investment advisers, analysts, planners, lawyers, tax advisers or accountants. The information contained herein and all associated media is not and should not be regarded as “marketing material” of any kind or an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. We do not solicit any action. We do not consider the particular investment objectives, financial/legal/tax situations, or needs of individuals, and therefore none of the information we provide should be relied on as tailored or personal advice or recommendation.

Backtest Results and Performance

How has the SPY Steady Ascent strategy fared over time? We backtested this strategy from January 2004 to January 2025, spanning over 21 years. Here are some of the key statistics:

- Total Return: ~340 percent return, a 3.4x increase.

- Annual Rate of Return: An average of 7.3%, with a 10.7% annualized return over the last five years.

- Sharpe Ratio: 0.71, indicating decent risk-adjusted returns.

- Maximum Drawdown: -23.2%

- Trade Frequency: 173 trades over the period, averaging ~8 trades per year.

- Win Rate and Expectancy: Win rate stands at 75.7% with an expectancy of 0.91% per trade.

- Average Exposure: 63.3%

The equity curve shows a generally smooth upward trajectory, with some significant drawdowns during downturns like the 2008 financial crisis and the 2022-2023 correction.

Entry and Exit Rules